n006  0625  11 Feb 84
AM-ANDROPOV-SKETCHES (Undated) 2takes
c.1984 N.Y. Times News Service
    Geidar A. Aliyev
    Born May 10, 1923, to a worker family in Azerbaijan ... Graduated
from Pedagogical Institute in Nakhichevan and Industrial Institute in
Baku ... From 1941 served in local security agencies ... Named deputy
chairman of the Azerbaijan KGB in 1964 and chairman in 1967 ...
Joined Communist Party in 1945 ... Named to republic's central
committee in 1966 and first secretary in 1969 ... Appointed full
member of the national Central Committee in 1971, candidate member of
the Politburo in 1976 and full member of Politburo immediately upon
Leonid I. Brezhnev's death in November 1982 ... Named first deputy
prime minister soon after and in ensuing year responsibilities were
said to extend to transport, consumer goods industry, and culture ...
Last week, Pravda announced he was to make working visit to Syria ...
Considered by diplomats to be bright and competent but hampered in
political ambition by non-Slavic background.
    Mikhail S. Gorbachev
    At 52, the youngest man in the Politburo but one of its most
powerful members ... An agricultural specialist who has taken
increasing responsibility in foreign affairs ... Known for having
been a strong supporter of Andropov ... Some believe Andropov was
grooming him for succession ... Has favored decentralized economic
management ... Born of Russian peasants in the North Caucasus ...
Attended Moscow State University in 1950s ... Returned home to work
for the Komsomol youth league and became head of local party in 1970
... Named one of 300 members of Soviet Communist Party Central
Committee in 1971 ... In 1978 was named to party's Secretariat and
given agriculture portfolio ... Though he presided over a series of
disastrous harvests, he became a candidate member of the Politburo in
1979 and full member in 1980 ... After Andropov's rise to power,
became one of Politburo's most active and visible members, with
responsibilities in agriculture, foreign affairs, and party cadres
... Made trip to Canada last June, visiting farms and holding talks
with Canadian leaders
    Viktor V. Grishin
    Head of Moscow city party organization and member of Politburo ...
69 years old ... Frequent traveler to Eastern bloc nations, the West,
and Third World ... Emerged as one of Kremlin's inner circle several
years ago ... Credited with deft handling of 1980 Olympics ... Born
into a worker's family in town of Serpukhov in what is now Moscow
Oblast ... Began career as a land surveyor in 1932 at the age of 18
... Five years later, followed in father's footsteps as a railroad
engineer ... Was picked to head local party machinery's industry
department of Moscow Oblast in 1950 ... Two years later, was
appointed second secretary of Moscow Oblast under Khrushchev, then
first secretary ... Served as chairman of Soviet Union trade unions
from 1956 to 1967 ... Traveled widely to international party
congresses abroad ... Served 10 years as candidate member of
Politburo before promotion to Moscow city party leader in 1967.
    Andrei A. Gromyko
    Of living Soviet leaders, his is the most recognized Soviet name
abroad ... minister of foreign affairs for 26 years ... A first
deputy prime minister, an ideological hardliner ... At 74, perhaps
too old for the party leadership but a possible participant in a
power-sharing arrangement ... Has survived shakeups and the twists
and turns of Soviet policy longer than any other man in Soviet public
life, mainly by being loyal to those in power ... Joined Communist
Party in 1931 ... Was educated in Moscow at the Institute of
Economics ... Entered diplomatic service in 1939 and was immediately
sent to Washington as an embassy counselor ... In 1943 became charge
d'affaires and a few months later was named ambassador to the United
States at the age of 34 ... Was with Stalin for wartime conferences
with Churchill and Roosevelt at Yalta, Teheran, and Potsdam ... Was
the Soviet delegate to the United Nations in 1946 and gained world
attention with 25 vetoes ... Named ambassador to Britain in 1952.
    (MORE) nn
    
nyt-02-11-84 0911est
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n007  0630  11 Feb 84
AM-ANDROPOV-SKETCHES 1stadd
NYT UNDATED: in 1952.
    Grigory V. Romanov
    One of three top figures, with Gorbachev and Chernenko ... Long
Considered top prospect for leadership of Soviet Communist Party ...
Full Politburo member since 1976 ... Named to the Central Committee
Secretariat last June ... 61 years old ... Born to peasant family in
Zikhnovo, near Novgorod ... Studied shipbuilding and became chief
designer at Zhdanov Shipbuilding Plant, Leningrad ... Joined
Communist Party in 1944 and began career as party professional in
1955 as secretary of the Zhdanov factory ... Became Leningrad party
chief in 1970 at age of 47 ... Earned reputation for managerial
efficiency, ideological toughness, and dealing harshly with dissent
... Brought to Moscow by Andropov to assume control of party
discipline ... Was given responsibility for defense industries and
other aspects of economy ... Has taken prominent role in foreign
affairs, attending Soviet-bloc economic congress in East Berlin last
October and West German Communist Party convention in January.
    Dmitri F. Ustinov
    Soviet defense minister since 1976 after many years as a leading
figure in Soviet defense industry ... 75 years old ... A tough,
efficient planner who helped build the Soviet Union into a military
superpower, directing nuclear missile program, and helping create
world's biggest tank force and nuclear submarine fleet ... Is said to
have been interim Politburo chief when Andropov was ill ... Was only
33 when named commisar of defense production at outset of World War
II ... Credited with increasing defense production to help defeat
Nazis ... Later guided development of Soviet rocketry and space
programs ... Became full member of Central Committee in 1956 and a
first deputy premier in 1957 ... Was named chief of Supreme Economic
Council, the top economic and planning body, by Khrushchev in 1963
... Became candidate member of Politburo in 1966 and a full member 10
years later.
    
nyt-02-11-84 0915est
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n023  0841  11 Feb 84
BC-ANDROPOV-APPRAISAL Undated
c.1984 N.Y. Times News Service
    Yuri V. Andropov may have led the Soviet Union for too short a time
to leave a significant legacy, according to American experts
interviewed Friday.
    Though there was some disagreement about the extent of his impact,
some analysts saw the selection of his successor as posing a major
choice for the future course of the Soviet government.
    These are excerpts from the interviews:
    
    W. Averell Harriman, former ambassador to the Soviet Union.
    I believe that Mr. Andropov was a man who understood the great
dangers of confrontation and the catastrophic consequences of nuclear
war.
    This is a time for caution and care in the conduct of our affairs
with the Soviet Union as that nation undergoes the transition to new
leadership.
    George F. Kennan, professor emeritus at the Institute for Advanced
Study in Princeton, N.J., and former ambassador to the Soviet Union.
    Andropov's death obviously presents a serious problem for his
leading party comrades. It would be useless to speculate at this
point about how and when it will be solved. Nothing in the party
statutes requires an immediate decision.
    Meanwhile, it would be wrong to suppose that the leading organs of
government will be paralyzed by the absence of this one man. In
particular, the fact of his death would not alone suggest any early
or drastic changes in foreign policy.
    
    Adam B. Ulam, Gurney professor of history and political science and
director of the Russian Research Center at Harvard University.
    Andropov never really consolidated power and there were signs of
collective leadership under him. It takes two or three years to
consolidate leadership, so there will be another period of strain
and, for the time being, a continuation of collective leadership.
    In periods of transition, the Soviets put things on hold and pull in
their claws. But the external line of the leadership will continue to
be harsh, as it was under Andropov.
    
    Stephen F. Cohen, professor of Soviet politics at Princeton
University.
    It's a major moment in Soviet political history. They face the clear
choice between two different generations, and their choice is going
to affect leadership throughout the system.
    If they now choose a man in his 70's they are going to send a signal
through the entire government structure, through the little district
committees of the party, through the ballet companies, the film
industry, book publishing, that the old men can hang on to posts of
authority.
    But if they go for a younger man, the message will go out to the
grandfathers to go home to their grandchildren. They will give
younger leaders a chance to build up power over the years and to make
longterm plans.
    
    Marshall I. Goldman, economics professor at Wellesley College and
associate director of the Russian Research Center at Harvard.
    As his legacy to the economy, Andropov created a sense now that the
country was back to work. He got the country going again after the
degeneration that had set in under Brezhnev. His emphasis on
discipline and productivity and anti-alcoholism caused production to
increase so that 1983 was a more robust performance than 1982 under
Brezhnev.
    But where Andropov failed was in addressing the fundamental need of
the economy, which was for a basic structural reform. He recognized
that had to be done, but he was unable to conduct anything other than
minor surgery. His death is going to make it difficult for his
successor to pick up that continuity, and indeed if anything,
discipline may deteriorate. So Andropov as a one-and-a-half-year
leader was in for too short a time, and because it was so short a
period of time it may end up being counterproductive.
    
    Seweryn Bialer, director of the Research Institute on International
Change, and Ruggles professor of policymaking at Columbia University.
    Mr. Andropov did not have time to make any decisions which will
leave an imprint on the Soviet political system. His incapacitation
in the last half year created again a situation closely resembling
the last year of Brezhnev.
    I do believe that throughout Mr. Andropov's leadership the Politburo
acted in reality as a collective body, and I think that now,
regardless who is selected to replace Mr. Andropov, the policymaking
process within the Politburo will remain collective. In this sense I
do not believe that one can expect in the near future any major
changes in the Soviet domestic or foreign policy.
    
    Harrison Salisbury, author and former New York Times bureau chief in
Moscow.
    I don't expect any basic changes in policy, at least not at the
start. The successor will be chosen by the same men and essentially
the same power base which picked and supported and has been acting as
a surrogate for Andropov in the past months. I think the group
Andropov epitomized, the older group in the Politburo, is very
powerful and will continue to be powerful.
    The only immediate effect I would see would be increased
security-consciousness in the Soviet Union and in the Eastern bloc.
You always have that when there are changes at the top, and this is
accentuated this time because of the two changes coming so swiftly.
For the same reason, I don't expect to see any striking changes in
foreign policy.
    Andropov left no legacy whatever. He had hardly time to leave any
mark on the Soviet Union at all.
    
nyt-02-11-84 1127est
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